Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 2.507931 2.929360 3.396780 3.953235 4.597260 5.318833 6.188305
2025-12-21 1.819379 2.372482 3.052657 3.948765 5.096508 6.515443 8.401191
2025-12-28 1.515502 2.162096 3.026834 4.263368 5.981367 8.278695 11.578550
2026-01-04 1.239392 1.909063 2.870841 4.344820 6.537753 9.669113 14.467728
2026-01-11 1.040454 1.713801 2.742876 4.417836 7.061621 11.056104 17.526684
2026-01-18 0.878938 1.537921 2.602873 4.432181 7.475903 12.311080 20.537717
2026-01-25 0.745128 1.378264 2.455192 4.398464 7.790825 13.430633 23.462239
2026-02-01 0.604186 1.178287 2.203462 4.141698 7.682121 13.825400 25.217705
2026-02-08 0.508194 1.041188 2.036986 4.002922 7.747539 14.506404 27.529868
2026-02-15 0.442977 0.950424 1.939356 3.971970 7.997035 15.532011 30.573787
2026-02-22 0.408539 0.914716 1.940319 4.127873 8.617006 17.305939 35.220771
2026-03-01 0.360526 0.841889 1.855299 4.096952 8.860610 18.386518 38.655560
2026-03-08 0.316297 0.771534 1.768691 4.058837 9.103750 19.535680 42.460989
2026-03-15 0.280800 0.714923 1.703482 4.058825 9.432505 20.912131 46.943092
2026-03-22 0.272227 0.720620 1.778300 4.383553 10.518640 24.015168 55.494661
2026-03-29 0.248633 0.684793 1.751125 4.467798 11.073552 26.042426 61.962083
2026-04-05 0.227315 0.650676 1.722291 4.543008 11.617212 28.111627 68.788171
2026-04-12 0.205422 0.610762 1.672398 4.557813 12.016756 29.899864 75.191848
2026-04-19 0.183936 0.567745 1.607346 4.523196 12.287885 31.418569 81.147386
2026-04-26 0.155706 0.499659 1.464307 4.259400 11.933909 31.380542 83.300429
2026-05-03 0.135990 0.452866 1.371506 4.116816 11.876501 32.067696 87.353519
2026-05-10 0.122587 0.422852 1.321086 4.085014 12.114147 33.535189 93.597504
2026-05-17 0.116672 0.415653 1.336131 4.245198 12.909720 36.558168 104.313208